Occlusion: Separating Public Narrative from Evidence in Market Analysis

Research Context and Background

Occlusion is an analytical framework designed to separate public explanations from underlying evidence. It transforms scattered data into coherent briefs. Unlike traditional tools that stop at headlines, Occlusion focuses on the question most often avoided: what would make this read wrong? By presenting the public story, the evidence pushing against it, potential scenarios, and the source trail, Occlusion acts as a narrative debugger for markets.

Benefits

Occlusion helps users find useful insights hidden in disparate sources such as regulatory filings, route changes, permits, contracts, price movements, or quiet disagreements in community discussions. It consolidates these pieces into a single, inspectable read. The tool categorizes information into three distinct layers to provide a clear picture:

1. Direct Evidence: This includes filings, company pages, official data, earnings calls, market data, contracts, permits, and archives.
2. Public Belief: This covers news repetition, Reddit, YouTube, Hacker News, Wikipedia, X, forums, and comments.
3. Market Reaction: This involves prices, volume, prediction markets, rates, freight, energy, and sector movement.

By highlighting where public belief and evidence diverge, Occlusion allows users to understand the story before the market fully digests it.

Use Cases

Occlusion is built for investors, founders, analysts, operators, researchers, and intelligence teams to track stories before they settle. It applies this adversarial search method to various sectors:

• Technology: Users can analyze whether AI growth is truly chip-limited or power-limited by looking at utility filings and grid operator reports.
• Corporate Events: The tool helps investigate the likelihood of events like a SpaceX IPO. It examines private secondary pricing, founder control structures, and regulatory filings to determine if the market's foregone conclusion narrative holds.
• Geopolitics: Analysts can assess major treaties, such as the Iran nuclear deal, by identifying tripwires like Congressional blocking, IAEA inconsistencies, or oil futures failing to reprice.

Pricing

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Vibes

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Additional Information

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