Agora Predict

Agora Predict: A Platform for Prediction Markets

Agora Predict is a platform designed for hosting prediction markets where participants can bet on the outcomes of events or the values of specific quantities. It provides a structured environment for trading based on predictions, allowing users to translate their judgments and opinions into trading strategies.

Benefits

Agora Predict offers several key advantages:

• User-Friendly Interface: The platform is easy to navigate, with clear icons and a straightforward layout. Users can quickly access their accounts and view available markets.
• Flexible Trading: Participants can define contracts covering one or more outcomes, allowing for a wide range of trading strategies. Contracts can be renamed and are specific to each user.
• Market Maker: The platform uses a market maker that always quotes a price for a contract, ensuring liquidity and continuous trading opportunities.
• Calibrated Forecasts: Agora Predict's forecasts are well-calibrated, meaning the frequency of events matches their predicted probabilities. This makes the platform a reliable source for quantitative probabilities.

Use Cases

Agora Predict can be used in various scenarios, including:

• Event Prediction: Users can bet on the outcomes of events such as the winner of a competition or the result of an election.
• Continuous Variables: The platform supports markets for continuous variables by partitioning them into discrete intervals. For example, users can predict the UK unemployment rate or other numerical values.
• Research Funding: In markets run by CRUCIAL, credits represent shares of the segregated research funding pool, making it a useful tool for research purposes.

Vibes

Agora Predict has been well-received for its ability to produce reliable forecasts. The platform's calibration analysis shows that its forecasts are consistent with being well-calibrated, making it a trusted source for probability assessments. Users appreciate the platform's user-friendly interface and the flexibility it offers in defining contracts and trading strategies.

Additional Information

Agora Predict is part of a broader ecosystem that includes the CRUCIAL platform. The platform's forecasts have been used in various public markets, including predictions of monthly UK temperature, values of an El Niño-Southern Oscillation index, and monthly totals of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. The platform's ability to produce calibrated forecasts makes it a valuable tool for decision-making in uncertain situations.